Poll: Thompson edges Feingold in hypothetical matchup

(Note: This article was updated on Feb. 9, 2010 to correct the statement that this poll was a partnership between the UW–Madison Department of Political Science and the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute (WPRI). In fact, the poll was directed by Ken Goldstein, a UW–Madison political science professor, working with WPRI.)

Incumbent Russ Feingold and former Gov. Tommy Thompson each draw the support of about 4 in 10 Wisconsin residents in a new poll that pits the two politicians against one another in a hypothetical matchup for the U.S. Senate.

The survey of 700 randomly selected Wisconsin adults was conducted by phone with live interviewers from Sept. 27-29. It was directed by Ken Goldstein, a UW–Madison political science professor, working with the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute.

Thompson has a slight lead in the survey – 43 percent to 39 percent – over Feingold, who is up for re-election in 2010. The two men also had the highest favorability ratings, each getting 54 percent.

“Tommy Thompson is still the state’s most popular Republican, eight years after leaving the governor’s mansion and 11 years after last appearing on the ballot, and a race between these two major figures would clearly be competitive and draw national attention,” Goldstein says.  “That said, the undecided voters in this race look more like Feingold voters and Thompson would be re-evaluated by Wisconsin voters in more of a political light if he re-entered the political arena.”

In state legislative elections, a generic Democratic candidate for the state Assembly bests a generic Republican by 5 percentage points.

And Democrats also continue to enjoy an advantage in party identification in the Badger state, according to the poll.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points. The margin of error will be higher for sub-group analysis.  The sample of Wisconsin adults was selected by random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phones; cell-only households were not included.

WPRI – a nonpartisan, not-for-profit think tank – has been conducting independent, annual polls on politics and issues for more than 20 years. Working with Goldstein, the institute will survey state residents every four months. The next poll will be conducted in the spring.

Goldstein is also director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project at UW–Madison.

Known for his non-partisan, unbiased research, Goldstein has worked on national network election night coverage in every U.S. federal election since 1988, and is currently a consultant for the ABC News elections unit. During the 2008 presidential election, he was also the co-founder and director of the Big Ten Battleground Poll.