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A man with curly hair and a paid jacket sits cross-legged amidst the lupine and grasses
Tomorrow’s Yellowstone

Timon: Climate in conversation

Story by Elise Mahon | Photos by Althea Dotzour | Video by Jason Weiss

Park visitors coming from all across the globe crisscross down a shaded path, making their way to the shore of Jenny Lake, a popular scenic stop nestled in Grand Teton National Park. Just around the bend of the path, the dramatic backdrop of the Teton Mountain range rises up behind the bright blue lake. The visitors excitedly make their way to the shoreline.

Standing just off the edge of the path, in stark contrast with his green and brown surroundings, is Timon Keller, a PhD student in a UW–Madison-red polo shirt.

“Hi there, we’re taking a survey to see how people feel about the park and some of the changes that may happen to the landscape. Do you have a few minutes?” he asks a group as they pass by.

Timon is a student in Monica Turner’s lab in the Department of Integrative Biology. He assists with a number of projects, including the lab’s long-term forest resilience studies dating back to 1988, and he is leading his own research for his graduate work. That work is focused on understanding how nutrients important for plant growth recover after large fires burn stands of lodgepole pine forest. He is also studying how fire refugia — areas that remain unburned or minimally affected by fire — affect forest regeneration under potential future climate scenarios.

On this day in the park, Timon is using decades of the lab’s data to show park visitors what the future of Yellowstone might look like in a world that’s hotter and drier due to climate change. He’s showing them how it may transform if we don’t collectively do more to curb carbon emissions.

When people take the survey, they’re shown different versions of iconic landscapes throughout the park. First, they’re shown a landscape as it currently exists, thanks to photos Timon took there in the summer of 2022.

Then visitors are shown what that same landscape could look like if carbon emissions continue to increase, leading to hot, dry weather and more frequent fire. Fire has long been a natural part of the ecology of the region, but it now occurs at much shorter intervals, altering the ability of the forests to recover. These future landscapes are based on computer model projections that rely on decades of data from the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem; they forecast future climate conditions and their effects on forests.

The survey prompts visitors to choose their preferred landscape and also asks them to share why they prefer one over the other.

In the midst of everyday life, it can be difficult to connect with the urgency and magnitude of climate change, but by first explaining the changes that are happening in national parks people love, Timon hopes people will reflect on what a changing climate may mean for their own communities.

Timon says on the drive back to camp after a long day of surveying, “I want people to go, ‘When a bear can’t survive because its food doesn’t grow anymore, what will that mean for my corn in Iowa?'”

The survey sparks a lot of conversation around climate, and Timon is glad for the opportunity to hear people’s range of perspectives.

Survey visitors with Timon

A man kneels next to the desk where a looks at a computer screen and considers data

The projected landscape photos Timon uses in the survey are based on computer models developed by Turner’s collaborator, Rupert Seidl. Turner and her former UW-Madison PhD students Kristin Braziunas, Winslow Hansen (both pictured) and Tyler Hoecker adapted the models for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. They draw on decades of data to forecast how the landscape may change due to a climate that is rapidly shifting due to rising human-generated carbon emissions.

Winslow earned his PhD in 2018, and Kristin and Tyler both finished in 2021. Timon enthusiastically picked up the reins for the modeling work and pushed further into investigating the best way to communicate what living in the reality of these graphs and data would look like.

The projected landscape photos Timon uses in the survey are based on computer models developed by Turner’s collaborator, Rupert Seidl. Turner and her former UW-Madison PhD students Kristin Braziunas, Winslow Hansen (both pictured) and Tyler Hoecker adapted the models for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. They draw on decades of data to forecast how the landscape may change due to a climate that is rapidly shifting due to rising human-generated carbon emissions. Winslow earned his PhD in 2018, and Kristin and Tyler both finished in 2021. Timon enthusiastically picked up the reins for the modeling work and pushed further into investigating the best way to communicate what living in the reality of these graphs and data would look like.

A man in a red shirt holds open a book with two photo options while a woman looks at the photos and a nearby man types in an iPad

Grand Teton National Park visitors Dave and Kristina Hofer from Oregon complete the survey on which landscapes they prefer. Dave Hofer fills out answers on an iPad while Kristina Hofer looks over two photos.

Compared to the photo on the left, which Timon took at Mount Washburn in 2022, the image on the right shows a version of the same landscape based on climate projections from the Tuner lab's data-driven computer models. In this possible future, the dense forest is replaced by a patchier one, studded with many fewer trees.

Grand Teton National Park visitors Dave and Kristina Hofer from Oregon complete the survey on which landscapes they prefer. Dave Hofer fills out answers on an iPad while Kristina Hofer looks over two photos. Compared to the photo on the left, which Timon took at Mount Washburn in 2022, the image on the right shows a version of the same landscape based on climate projections from the Tuner lab's data-driven computer models. In this possible future, the dense forest is replaced by a patchier one, studded with many fewer trees.

A man and a woman in red shirts talk to two women holding iPads while trees and mountains are seen in the distance

Wearing red UW polos, Timon and Turner lab manager Lucy McGuire speak with two park visitors from Fresno, California, at the Upper Willow Flats Overlook in Grand Teton National Park. The visitors have spent the summer visiting an array of national parks.

As visitors complete the survey, their opinions about climate change bubble to the surface.

“People just want to feel heard,” says Timon. “They have been getting a lot of different kinds of information about how high atmospheric carbon levels will affect the world, and sometimes people just need to let off some steam before having a conversation."

Wearing red UW polos, Timon and Turner lab manager Lucy McGuire speak with two park visitors from Fresno, California, at the Upper Willow Flats Overlook in Grand Teton National Park. The visitors have spent the summer visiting an array of national parks. As visitors complete the survey, their opinions about climate change bubble to the surface. “People just want to feel heard,” says Timon. “They have been getting a lot of different kinds of information about how high atmospheric carbon levels will affect the world, and sometimes people just need to let off some steam before having a conversation."

A woman in a red shirt holds a book with two photos to a man in a red shirt and ball cap

At left, David Corda, a national park visitor from Milan, Italy, evaluates two images, a current landscape and a possible future landscape in the year 2100 if carbon emissions remain high and lead to hotter, drier climate conditions.

Some of the people Timon speaks to are skeptical of or deny climate change. But he says, “I have found that the pictures are still a useful tool,” he says. “This is just such a cool reminder that the science that we do matters for people. I think that really is something very special about this opportunity … People love these landscapes.”

At left, David Corda, a national park visitor from Milan, Italy, evaluates two images, a current landscape and a possible future landscape in the year 2100 if carbon emissions remain high and lead to hotter, drier climate conditions. Some of the people Timon speaks to are skeptical of or deny climate change. But he says, “I have found that the pictures are still a useful tool,” he says. “This is just such a cool reminder that the science that we do matters for people. I think that really is something very special about this opportunity … People love these landscapes.”

A man in a red shirt sits on the tailgate of a minivan speaking with five members of a family while on the side, a man holds an iPad and speaks to three children

At right, national park visitor Vipul Bansal takes the survey, reading each question aloud to children in his family, asking them questions about what they think.

“This interaction was really heartwarming,” says Timon. Seeing Bansal engage with the children on the project and the future of Yellowstone gave him hope their work might make a difference.

At right, national park visitor Vipul Bansal takes the survey, reading each question aloud to children in his family, asking them questions about what they think. “This interaction was really heartwarming,” says Timon. Seeing Bansal engage with the children on the project and the future of Yellowstone gave him hope their work might make a difference.

Burned tree trunks rise into the blue sky as a sunset illuminates the flowers and green grasses growing below

This is exactly what Timon hopes this project will accomplish. It’s providing insight into how scientists and others can best engage with the public and help people to think about and understand how climate change may affect their lives.

"The photos in this survey show that there will be a future, but the deeper question is, 'Will we like it?' The baselines are shifting," he says. "We won't maintain forests as they used to be, but we need to manage for forests in the future."

This is exactly what Timon hopes this project will accomplish. It’s providing insight into how scientists and others can best engage with the public and help people to think about and understand how climate change may affect their lives. "The photos in this survey show that there will be a future, but the deeper question is, 'Will we like it?' The baselines are shifting," he says. "We won't maintain forests as they used to be, but we need to manage for forests in the future."

See more stories in the “Tomorrow's Yellowstone” series

Tomorrow’s Yellowstone

Tomorrow’s Yellowstone: Arielle

Tomorrow’s Yellowstone: Researchers

Tomorrow’s Yellowstone: Monica

Tomorrow’s Yellowstone: Timon