Poll: Spirits are high

How are things going in the views of Wisconsin residents? Pretty well, and economic and personal fortunes are expected to improve, according to the most recent Badger Poll.

Poll questions tapped six interrelated “dimensions” meant to assess a respondent’s overall sense of societal wel- being, says G. Donald Ferree, Jr., associate director for public opinion research at the University of Wisconsin Survey Center.

Queries dealt with the public sphere; how people feel things are going for the country; how they are expected to go in the near future; how the economy is expected to do. Others dealt with satisfaction with one’s personal situation and how satisfied one is one’s family’s financial situation.

Ferree says these types of queries have been used on various state or national surveys to create a “Gross National Spirit” index that summarizes overall satisfaction in the same way stock market indices summarize how things are going in the market overall rather than individually reporting separate stocks.

The center surveyed 524 randomly selected state residents by telephone during June 8-17. The poll was financed by private funds made available by the UW–Madison Chancellor’s Office and University Communications, with the media sponsorship of the Capital Times.

Ferree outlines the key findings as follows:

• When asked to rate “how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the United States today” on a three point scale, the vast bulk of respondents (75 percent) declared themselves “more or less satisfied,” the middle point. One in 10 chose “very satisfied,” while one in seven chose “not at all satisfied.”

The profile of opinion for men and women was similar, although the latter were more willing to take the middle choice, and among men those who choose either extreme were a bit more likely not to be satisfied. When it comes to age, the proportion putting themselves in the middle tends to decline as age increases, while the balance is similar for all except the youngest, who are least likely to choose the most negative option.

• Relatively short-term projections display a modest optimism. “Over the next year or so,” half of all respondents (51 percent) expect things to “stay about the same” for the country as a whole. But among those expecting a change, those who think things will go better (34 percent) outnumber those who expect them to go worse (11 percent) by about three to one. Men are more optimistic than women, with a four-to-one margin among those expecting a shift, compared to about two to one among women as a group.

• While just under half (46 percent) of all respondents believe the national economy will stay the same, almost as many (43 percent) think it will get better. Men are a good deal more hopeful than women; half look to economic improvement, compared to only about one in three women. Fewer than one in 10 of either group thinks things will get worse.

Ferree says it should be emphasized that in all groups, few think things will get worse, and the distinction among them is just how much “optimism” is voiced.

• Respondents also were asked to rate “the way things are going for you personally.” Again, the largest single proportion was more or less satisfied, but this time, almost four in 10 (37 percent) called themselves “very satisfied” and fewer than one in 10 (9 percent) “not at all satisfied.”

As a group, men voiced somewhat greater satisfaction than women, and as was the case for the country as a whole, were more likely not to opt for the middle category.

• Asked about “your family’s financial situation,” overall just shy of six in 10 (57 percent) respondents called themselves more or less satisfied. Those who chose either the more positive or less positive alternative broke about two to one (28 percent-15 percent) in favor of being very satisfied. Still, this means that the typical state resident puts his or her family financial satisfaction somewhat between where they feel about their lives overall and how the country is doing overall, Ferree says.

• Respondents were also asked whether they approved or disapproved “of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president.” Overall, eight in 10 (80 percent) approve, five times as many as disapprove (16 percent). Only partisanship shows a clear pattern, with approval of just over six in 10 among Democrats, almost exactly eight in 10 among Independents, and literally every self-described Republican claiming to approve of Bush’s performance.

Results from this survey have a “margin of error” of a little over +/- 4 percent. This means that, had the survey included every eligible adult in Wisconsin, there is only a one in 20 chance that the answers would differ by more than that in either direction from what has been reported. Results based on subgroups are subject to a larger margin of error.