Poll covers economy, state’s direction, 2010 election

(Note: This article was updated on Feb. 9, 2010 to correct the statement that this poll was a partnership between the UW–Madison Department of Political Science and the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute (WPRI). In fact, the poll was directed by Ken Goldstein, a UW–Madison political science professor, working with WPRI.)

Tom Barrett and Scott Walker have the early edge in hypothetical primary matchups in the 2010 governor’s race, according to a new poll in which Wisconsinites also give high levels of support to President Barack Obama but express concern about the direction of state government.

The survey of 700 randomly selected Wisconsin adults was conducted by phone with live interviewers from Sept. 27-29. It was directed by Ken Goldstein, a UW–Madison political science professor, working with the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute.

The majority of Wisconsin residents surveyed are concerned about the economy and unhappy with the direction of the country as a whole although, by a 2-1 margin, they expect things to get better over the next year, according to the poll.

“It’s been a tough year and a majority of people think the state and the country are on the wrong track,” Goldstein says. “But Wisconsin residents are showing some cautious optimism on the economy.”

Fifty-seven percent of Wisconsinites still approve of Obama’s job performance, while 43 percent approve of Gov. Jim Doyle’s performance. Levels of trust in state government in general are considerably lower.

“We continue to see a lack of confidence in state government,” says George Lightbourn, president of WPRI. “Only 29 percent think they can trust state government to do the right thing most of the time. Forty-six percent think that, in the last year, state government has made the economic situation worse.”

Early in the race to replace Doyle as governor, the main contenders — Barrett, Walker, Barbara Lawton and Mark Neumann — are still unknown by half of Wisconsinites. Among Democrats, more have a favorable view of Barrett (41 percent) than Lawton (30 percent); more Republicans have a favorable view of Walker (45 percent) than Neumann (33 percent).

In a hypothetical matchup, if the Democratic gubernatorial primary were held today, 38 percent would vote for Barrett, even though the Milwaukee mayor and former U.S. congressman has not said if he is running. Lawton, the sitting lieutenant governor who has declared her candidacy, would get 16 percent.

If the GOP gubernatorial primary were held today, 39 percent would vote for Walker, the Milwaukee County executive. Neumann, a former U.S. congressman, would get 14 percent.

The poll also asked about political affiliation. More Wisconsinites identify with Democrats than Republicans, but the Democrats’ large advantage in party identification among Wisconsin residents has decreased some since the 2008 presidential election. Still, the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans has not changed in that time.

“The Democratic brand has taken some hits. That said, it doesn’t translate yet to an improvement on the Republican side,” Goldstein says.

Republicans think both Obama and Doyle are doing a poor job, but Obama still has very strong support among Democrats and solid support among independents. Doyle, who announced earlier this year he would not seek a third term, has low approval ratings from independents and less solid support from his own party.

Among the poll’s other results:

• Forty-two percent of respondents or their families have been directly affected by the recession through a job loss, a reduction in hours, a furlough or home foreclosure. Nearly one-fourth said they or someone in their family had lost a job in the past year.
• Among those aged 18-35, 8 percent get their news from newspapers and 40 percent from the Internet. Among those 65 and over, 60 percent rely on the papers and 2 percent on the Internet.
• The poll has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points. The margin of error will be higher for sub-group analysis. The sample of Wisconsin adults was selected by random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phones; cell-only households were not included.

Detailed poll results on these issues can be found at http://www.wpri.org. More poll results will be available in the coming days.

WPRI — a nonpartisan, not-for-profit think tank — has been conducting independent, annual polls on politics and issues for more than 20 years. Working with Goldstein, the institute will survey state residents every four months. The next poll will be conducted in the spring.

Goldstein is also director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project at UW–Madison. Known for his nonpartisan, unbiased research, Goldstein has worked on national network election night coverage in every U.S. federal election since 1988, and is currently a consultant for the ABC News elections unit. During the 2008 presidential election, he was also the co-founder and director of the Big Ten Battleground Poll.