More than $100 million spent on presidential ads, little in Super Tuesday states

Presidential candidates spent $107 million on television advertising so far this season, with nearly all of it spent in the run-up to the earliest primaries and caucuses and almost none of it on Super Tuesday states, a University of Wisconsin–Madison study shows.

Although Republican Mitt Romney announced Thursday plans to go up on the air, no Republican candidate had advertised by last Sunday in Super Tuesday states.

Democrats and Republicans aired roughly 150,000 ads total during this time, spending approximately the same amount on an air campaign that was mostly positive but lopsided within the GOP, the study by the Wisconsin Advertising Project found.

Although Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton spent somewhat similarly on TV (Obama only slightly higher), Romney spent as much as all of his opponents combined — and almost four times as much as John McCain in Florida. Yet McCain defeated Romney in Florida, as he did in New Hampshire and South Carolina, despite the disadvantage.

While Republican ads featured the issues of taxes, defense (including Iraq, veterans and terrorism), abortion and immigration, Democrats all led with health care — followed by economic issues (housing, poverty and jobs). Ninety percent of nearly all candidates’ ads were judged "positive," with only 10 percent determined to be "contrast" in nature and none "negative," save for 11 ads aired by Republican Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Only Democrat John Edwards named his two leading opponents in more than 80 percent of his TV advertising.

Obama and Romney were the candidates of "change," repeating that mantra in one-third of their ads, while Clinton, slow to embrace the term in her messaging, still managed to use it in more than one-quarter of her TV spots. In the meantime, her "experience" was featured in slightly more of her ads than change.

These are among the findings of a new report from the Wisconsin Advertising Project that analyzed data obtained from the TNS Media Intelligence Campaign Media Analysis Group (TNSMI/CMAG). The report analyses political television advertising in 90 percent of TV households across the country and include all data through Sunday, Jan. 27.

"Although Romney is now up and Obama has just increased his ad buy, it is extremely unlikely that spending in all 23 February 5th states — including the two largest states in the country — will reach the levels seen in Iowa and New Hampshire," says Ken Goldstein, political science professor and director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project.

Through Sunday, Democrats running for president aired 83,320 advertisements on broadcast TV, with an estimated value of more than $57 million. Obama led the pack with almost 30,000 ads, worth almost $23 million, and then Clinton, with more than 25,500 ads, worth more than $18 million. Edwards trailed far behind, with merely half of what Clinton bought and Bill Richardson at half of that. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden trailed.

On the Republican side, GOP candidates broadcast 67,798 TV ads over the same period, worth an estimated $50 million. Romney alone accounted for almost 35,000 of those, spending nearly $29 million on them. McCain was far behind, with less than one-third as many/much and Rudy Giuliani, Huckabee, Ron Paul and Fred Thompson further behind still.

Meanwhile, third-party groups, spending independently and not in coordination with the campaigns, also got an early start this cycle. They accounted for nearly 5,000 ads and $3 million worth of chatter in the campaign.

Overall TV ad spending by the candidates looked like this, with the number of TV spots in parentheses:

DEMOCRATS — Biden (3,165), $1.8 million; Clinton (25,562), $18.7 million; Dodd (4,028), $1.8 million; Edwards (14,732) $8.3 million; Dennis Kucinich, (27) $7,000; Obama (29,866), $22.7 million; Bill Richardson (5,936), $4.2 million. Democratic total (83,320) $57 million.

REPUBLICANS — Giuliani (6,856), $5.6 million; Huckabee (5,831), $2.6 million; Duncan Hunter (114), $68,000; McCain (10,830), $8 million; Ron Paul, (5,215), $2.8 million; Romney (34,821), $29 million; Tom Tancredo (99), $160,000; Fred Thompson (4,032), $2.2 million. Republican total (67,798), $50 million.

Not surprisingly, Iowa and New Hampshire led all other states in markets — including adjacent markets like Boston or Omaha — targeted for presidential campaign ads.

They were followed by South Carolina, Nevada, Florida and Michigan far behind. Voters in and around Des Moines saw almost 22,000 ads this campaign, worth more than $15 million, while their New Hampshire counterparts — those watching Manchester and Boston TV — saw about exactly the same.

In fact, the lone TV station in Manchester, N.H., WMUR-TV, saw 14,000 ads alone, with more money spent there than in all Super Tuesday states combined.

Through Sunday, only $8 million had been spent in Super Tuesday states on TV — $3 million in California alone — yet nine days out from the New Hampshire primary, $26 million had been spent there, and at the same point before the Iowa caucuses, $36 million had been spent there.

Furthermore, as of last Sunday, all of the spending had been on the Democratic side by Obama and Clinton. "Talk about a compressed Super Tuesday campaign," Goldstein says. "Until this week, no Republican was on TV in these key states at all."

As of Jan. 27, candidate spending on TV ads in Iowa totaled $43 million, with $32 million spent in New Hampshire, $13 million in South Carolina, $10 million in Florida, $4 million in Michigan and $2.5 million in Nevada. There was no Democratic spending in Michigan or Florida.

Whereas Republican candidates led the majority of their TV commercials with a variety of traditional conservative issues — taxes, defense (including Iraq, veterans and terrorism), abortion and immigration, all three leading Democrats led with the same issue — health care. Then came economic issues (housing, poverty and jobs), government ethics and energy.

Change was a popular theme. Thirty-seven percent of all of Obama’s ads mentioned the word "change," while none used the word "experience." But of the ads Hillary Clinton aired, 27 percent mentioned change and 30 percent used experience. Meanwhile, more than 29 percent of Romney’s ads also used the word "change."

But if "change" has been a big word in presidential campaign ads so far the year, the American flag has been the most popular image. McCain used the image more than any other leading candidate, with 77 percent of his TV ads displaying the flag. Close behind was Giuliani, with 65 percent of his spots doing the same, and Romney with 44 percent of his. On the Democratic side, John Edwards used the flag 49 percent of the time, Obama 40 percent and Clinton just 33 percent.

Sometimes, though, who delivers the message can be as important as what it says or how it looks. Among Democrats, Obama narrated nearly 83 percent of his own ads, while Hillary Clinton narrated 43 percent of hers.

Edwards was the most likely to contrast himself with other candidates in his advertising. Eighty-one percent of Edwards’ ads were contrast ads and in virtually all he criticized Obama and Clinton.

"So, while most of the attention in the free media went to flare-ups between Clinton and Obama, Edwards was most likely to focus on his competitors in the paid media," Goldstein says.

While the tone of debates and candidate speeches may have become a bit more heated, the tone of advertising was overwhelmingly positive. More than 90 percent of ads aired in the race have been positive. On the Democratic side, all of Obama’s ads were positive while 89 percent of Clinton’s ads were positive. The other 11 percent of Clinton ads were contrast ads, which, save for a few, the focus of her criticism was on someone not on the ballot — President Bush.

And Huckabee aired the only pure negative ad aired by a candidate to date. The ad, criticizing Romney, was pulled, but not before it aired 11 times in Iowa markets.

Using data obtained from TNS Media Intelligence Campaign Media Analysis Group (TNSMI/CMAG), the Wisconsin Advertising Project codes and analyzes nearly all of the political advertising that is aired in 2008 federal and gubernatorial races across the country. The project, considered the most important and credible source of information on campaign TV advertising, is funded in 2008 by a grant from the Chicago-based Joyce Foundation.

The Wisconsin Advertising Project codes political television advertising for sponsors, issues, tone, and numerous other characteristics — all in real time. While most of the attention will be focused on the presidential race in 2008, it also tracks candidate, party, and interest group advertisements in congressional, gubernatorial and other down ballot races nationwide, with a particular focus on the Midwest.

More findings will be released by the project in a series of real-time reports during the course of the campaign.