And the forecast at the end of the century is …

At the end of the century, Wisconsin summers will feel like those in Arkansas do now, according to a two-year study by researchers at UW–Madison and several other institutions.

Using advanced computer models and 100 years of climate data, researchers report that pollution will completely change Midwestern weather. By the end of the century, they predict, Wisconsin’s temperatures will be 6 to 11 degrees warmer in the winter and 8 to 18 degrees warmer in the summer, and less rain will fall, drying up soil, streams and lakes. The study cites automobiles, coal-burning power plants and other human activities that produce heat-trapping gases as a major cause of this climate change.

What could happen in the next 100 years is comparable to the climate change experienced since the last ice age — in other words, during the last 1,000 years, says John Magnuson, a UW–Madison limnologist who contributed to the report. He adds that the effects of this rapid change will alter not just the character of the Midwest region, but also its environment, economy and people.

But do not despair quite yet: The researchers say some of the most serious changes can be avoided if we reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and invest more in renewable energy sources.

The Ecological Society of America and the Union of Concerned Scientists sponsored the report.